Guyana’s political opposition finds itself at a crossroads – or perhaps more fittingly, in a ditch of its own digging. As the country heads toward general elections, the once-formidable coalition that challenged the government is plagued by infighting, defections, and a conspicuous absence of clear policy alternatives. This disarray is proving to be an unwitting asset for the ruling PPP/C, which, by contrast, appears united and confident behind its agenda of development.

In recent weeks, the opposition’s turmoil has spilled into public view. The People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR), the main opposition party, has been hit by a “slew of resignations”, including high-profile figures. Most notably, shadow foreign minister Amanza Walton-Desir stunned observers by quitting the PNCR and launching her own party, just months before elections. Her departure – and that of several other senior members – underscores deep fractures. Insiders cite dissatisfaction with Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton’s leadership style, alleging a closed inner circle and poor campaign preparation. Norton has tried to shrug off the exits, but the optics are damning: at the very moment when opposition unity is needed to take on a well-oiled incumbent, the challengers are at war with themselves.

The coalition between PNCR and the smaller Alliance For Change (AFC) also lies in tatters. AFC, a onetime kingmaker, has seen its influence fade and recently signaled it will contest separately, effectively dissolving the APNU+AFC partnership that briefly held power from 2015 to 2020. The opposition’s fragmentation is a far cry from the cohesive front that is typically required to unseat an incumbent in Guyana’s ethnopolitically charged landscape. Historically, the PPP/C has only been defeated by broad opposition alliances. “The PPP was never ousted without a coalition,” as one analyst noted, and currently no such unified coalition exists. Instead, we see new splinter movements like Walton-Desir’s “Forward Guyana” siphoning off votes and attention.

These missteps are gifts to the PPP/C. The ruling party’s General Secretary Bharrat Jagdeo has openly welcomed disenchanted opposition members into PPP’s fold, projecting an image of inclusivity and momentum. In the lead-up to last year’s Local Government Elections, a number of PNCR figures crossed over to support the PPP/C – an almost unthinkable development in years past. While the opposition downplayed those crossovers, their impact was evident in the results: the PPP/C achieved a landslide victory, winning 66 of 80 local areas and making inroads into traditional PNCR strongholds. Such outcomes have sown panic and recriminations in opposition ranks, further eroding morale.

The PPP/C, for its part, has been savvy in exploiting opposition weaknesses. Government officials appear disciplined in sticking to a positive message – trumpeting record infrastructure projects, free education, and job creation – while only lightly touching on the opposition’s woes. President Irfaan Ali has largely ignored personal attacks and instead tours communities, cutting ribbons for new facilities and offering an optimistic vision. It’s an incumbent’s strategy playing out well: demonstrate competence and let the opposition self-destruct. Even neutral observers note that while the PPP/C is talking about building bridges (literally and figuratively), the opposition is busy burning them internally.

None of this is to say an election is a foregone conclusion – campaigns and sentiments can shift. But unless the opposition rapidly gets its house in order, it will head to the polls in a weakened state. There are calls from civil society for the opposition to at least articulate a cohesive platform: What exactly would they do differently? So far, answers are scarce. Instead, headlines focus on gaffes like the Opposition Leader labeling the national budget “the worst in 53 years” – a hyperbole widely mocked as out of touch – or on the opposition promising initiatives (such as free university tuition) that the government is already implementing. These missteps reinforce a perception that the opposition is reactive and bereft of fresh ideas.

In politics, as in nature, a vacuum is quickly filled. The PPP/C is moving to occupy the ground the opposition is ceding – reaching out to various demographic groups, addressing traditional opposition concerns like local empowerment, and even campaigning in opposition heartland communities with some success. If the opposition cannot project unity or vision, they may well hand the ruling party a victory by default. For the health of Guyanese democracy, many hope the opposition regroups enough to pose a serious contest. But time is running short, and at present the PPP/C’s biggest advantage is simply that it isn’t the disorganized mess on the other side of the aisle.