GEORGETOWN – Guyana’s economy is set to expand more than any other in the Western Hemisphere this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is praising the country’s stewardship of its newfound oil wealth. In its latest forecast, the IMF projects Guyana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 10.3% in 2025, on top of the double-digit growth recorded in recent years. That pace – driven by booming petroleum production and sustained public investment – is the fastest in the hemisphere and a standout globally. The IMF’s Western Hemisphere Director, Rodrigo Valdés, highlighted Guyana’s success, remarking “we’re seeing very good [economic] management in Guyana”, in contrast to some neighboring countries still establishing frameworks for their own oil sectors.
The commendation came during the IMF’s Spring Meetings press briefing, where Valdés noted that prudent policies are ensuring Guyana’s natural resource revenues are used sustainably. Since beginning oil production in late 2019, Guyana has seen explosive economic growth. The IMF’s Article IV mission report attributes this to a combination of rapidly expanding offshore oil output, robust performance in non-oil sectors, and “substantial public infrastructure investment” fueling broad-based development. Crucially, the Fund pointed out that the government has maintained macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline even amid the windfall – avoiding signs of overheating so far. Debt levels remain low, and much of the oil earnings are being channeled into capital projects and social programs rather than unsustainable spending, according to the IMF.
In its review, the IMF “commended Guyana’s authorities” for policies that support inclusive growth. It highlighted the positive impact of the government’s cash grants and social transfers, which have boosted household incomes and helped reduce poverty. These measures – ranging from expanded education scholarships to stipends for vulnerable groups – are credited with spreading the benefits of growth more widely across the population. The Fund encouraged continued targeted support for development goals, even as oil production ramps up further. Guyana is on track to produce about one million barrels of oil per day by the end of the decade, and the IMF anticipates an astonishing 23% GDP expansion in 2026 as new offshore projects come online.
Officials in Georgetown welcomed the IMF’s assessment as validation of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) government’s approach. Senior Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh noted that Budget 2025 – the largest in the country’s history – was crafted to balance transformative investments with stability. That record G$1.38 trillion budget (roughly US$6.6 billion) ramped up capital spending by over 20% without courting fiscal imbalances. Analysts say Guyana’s prudent debt management and the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund have helped shield the economy from volatility. Still, both the IMF and domestic policymakers caution that vigilance is needed. Inflation has been moderate, and there are no clear signs of the “Dutch Disease” – where a commodities boom undermines other sectors – thanks in part to strong 13% projected growth in non-oil GDP. Going forward, the IMF advised Guyana to closely monitor for any overheating and continue diversifying its economy. In the meantime, the tiny nation of 800,000 people finds itself atop the growth charts, with international experts citing it as a model for how resource riches, if managed wisely, can translate into tangible development gains.
